A Question of Probability

A while ago I spotted my mother reading a newspaper. I spotted this very interesting advertisement on the front cover.

I would like to point out that we have a population of around 400 thousand, and its only June. That's quite a few mugs. Note that these are winners. What this cheerful advertisement fails to explain is how many people scratched a loss. Its obvious that this number must be larger than the winners, otherwise its not a profitable enterprise.

So lets talk a bit about gambling. Even at prima facia its obvious that its all a giant scam. For one, its run by a business - the business' goal is to make money. If it didn't create additional money, they wouldn't keep offering it. If you look at giant buildings called Casinos, some of which are incredibly large buildings with swimming pools and gold everywhere... its quite easy to see who's winning in this whole ordeal.

So what's the reason people keep falling for this very obvious scam. There are three reasons. I don't know the technical words for the first two, but I'm sure my psych party-member could furnish us with them.


Basically, regardless of probability, you'll always get the feeling that you're special. You're very special. In fact, if the chance of winning is 1 to 42C5, you're still going to beat the odds and win. It's kinda like magic.


The Second reason is the idea of investment. If you invest in something, there is a tendency for you to continue investing in it, even if there is a better option. You throw away a ton of money at a casino, and you want your win. You've invested too much in this already.


The third reason of course is the media. How many films include people winning a new life at a casino or something? 


So basically, somewhere along the line someone noticed that mugs love probability and are willing to give up money for a tiny chance to win much more money. And this tradition has continued on today, and the largest winners are those who offer the services.


The Llama